FORECASTS
These are not declarations of certainty. They are time-stamped beliefs about what I think is becoming true.
AI will lower the cost of execution faster than it lowers the cost of judgment.
As execution becomes cheaper, judgment becomes more valuable.
Access to context will matter more than access to information.
The opportunity gap will increasingly be a context gap.
The best education products will optimise for agency, not engagement.
The most important metric will not be time spent. It will be increased agency.
Small teams will gain the operating leverage of much larger companies.
AI automation will let small teams handle work that once required large operating functions.
The next important social products will begin as useful tools, not feeds.
The next generation of social technology will need to earn trust by being useful first.
Trust will become more valuable as interfaces become more intelligent.
The products that last will not only be intelligent. They will be trustworthy.
RESOLUTION
Every forecast will later receive one of five outcomes:
- Correct
- Partly correct
- Incorrect
- Unresolved
- Superseded
Resolved records add the date, outcome, what happened, what I got right, what I got wrong, what I believe now, and evidence.